A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
